A major upheaval is underway—not only among Iran’s opposition-minded population but also within the regime itself
Secrecy, reserve, distance, and infrequent appearances in public or in the media have been the tools with which Ali Khamenei built his political persona. Aware that he lacks the charisma of his predecessor Khomeini and is not even particularly liked among his own ranks, Khamenei constructed his cult of personality through fear and loyalty—namely, via the omnipresent Pasdaran (Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and surveillance of his own citizens: the loyal were promoted, the opposition silenced.
It’s unclear whether the Iranian leader is familiar with the work of Italian writer Vittorio Imbriani, but the entire structure of his rule is based on a thought from the Neapolitan author: “Trust is a virtue, but it is even better not to trust, because no one has ever regretted being too cautious or too suspicious.”
The elimination of the entire military, paramilitary, and intelligence top brass of Iran suggests that Khamenei was, in principle, correct—but it also shows that many within his inner circle were working for Mossad. Like all autocrats, Khamenei underestimated the consequences of a decades-long theocratic regime—especially the accumulated animosity among Iranians who are now willing to cooperate with Israel not out of sympathy for Jews, but out of allergy to a half-century of religious dictatorship.
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic was neither popular nor prominent until the 1980s. He was not among the frontline revolutionaries, nor a leader of the Islamic revolutionary wave. It’s important to remember that Ali Khamenei is not Persian but Azeri—a member of an ethnic minority in Iran. His greatest asset was his closeness to Khomeini and a form of religious fundamentalism laced with deep contempt for the West. Khomeini, for these reasons, entrusted him with important roles, believing he could never challenge his authority.
Before inheriting the mantle from his religious and political father, the current leader of Iran held many positions—from being a member of the Revolutionary Council to Defense Minister, and eventually President of Iran. He was serving as president when Ayatollah Khomeini ended the eight-year war with Iraq, uttering the famous line: “Drinking the poisoned chalice of truce.”
The long-time ruler of life and death in Iran started out as what we would today call an underdog. Within Khomeini’s circle, rivals didn’t see him as a serious contender, and the so-called reformist wing believed they could manipulate him into power for their own gain. The hardline revolutionary faction derogatorily called him “Shish Kelasah” or “Six-Year Schooler,” implying he lacked the necessary credentials to be an ayatollah.
But Khamenei fooled them all. Even though he lacked the formal qualifications for the title of Ayatollah, he managed—with the backing of another powerful clerical figure, Rafsanjani—to rise to power.
Once in power, Khamenei quickly sidelined the reformists who had supported him, including Rafsanjani, and formed an alliance with the Revolutionary Guard and the hardline clerical establishment. The deal was based on the absolute supremacy of religion over secular affairs, with politics relegated to a subordinate role within the Islamic structure of the state.
Under Khamenei, the Pasdaran became the regime’s “Praetorian Guard,” more powerful than the army or any other institution, controlling, on behalf of the ayatollah, the entire administrative, military, police, economic, and educational apparatus of the country.
Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, triggered a chain of events that, within a year and a half, effectively destroyed everything Iran had built and financed over decades.
Ali Khamenei has held absolute power in Iran for 36 years, but very little is known about him. Since being appointed Ayatollah in 1989, he has not left Iran, and apart from his closest family members and associates, very few people actually know who the Supreme Leader really is. This has fueled a flood of rumors about Khomeini’s successor: from being a passionate pipe collector to allegedly amassing a vast fortune through Islamic foundations—completely at odds with the “modest life” portrayed by regime propaganda.
Khamenei suffers from partial paralysis on one side of his body due to a 1981 assassination attempt and reportedly overcame cancer a decade ago. The official narrative presents him as an ascetic who hates luxury and refuses expensive gifts—selling them and donating the money to charity when he must accept them.
The ayatollah portrays himself as a guardian of the Islamic Revolution’s values, social justice, independence, and Iranian sovereignty. The reality is rather different: Ali Khamenei is a ruthless dictator under whose orders anyone who opposes, threatens, or questions the regime is jailed or executed.
He has never hesitated to use force against Iranian citizens whenever his rule was threatened. This was evident during the 2009 reformist “Green Movement,” and again in 2019 when mass protests erupted over rising prices.
The regime’s brutality was also laid bare in its response to the youth-led “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement three years ago. Like all autocrats, the ayatollah blamed foreign powers for manipulating young people to create chaos and destabilize Iran.
However, that protest marked the beginning of a chain of events that has now put the regime Khamenei built over decades in mortal danger. Young Iranians managed, in very creative ways, to earn the sympathy of conservative elements of society—and even silent support—despite the fact that deviating from the regime’s line, especially publicly, is severely punished, often with death. Those who dissent end up in prison—or on the gallows.
On the other hand, the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani created a major fracture within the Pasdaran and among the network of allies he had built—from Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Yemen. It is entirely possible that when the history of our time is written, Soleimani’s killing—ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump—will be seen as a pivotal moment that changed the course of history.
The October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel set off a series of events that, in just 18 months, destroyed everything Iran had built and funded for decades. Virtually nothing remains of the so-called “axis of resistance” that surrounded Israel and served as a kind of insurance policy against a Tel Aviv attack on Tehran.
Despite the inflammatory and warlike rhetoric he uses in his public appearances, Ali Khamenei is very pragmatic and understands that the survival of his regime and the Islamic Revolution is at stake: he knows that a war with Israel must be avoided. If there is one thing certain about Ali Khamenei, it is that he knows how to build and manage a dictatorship. Shah Reza Pahlavi could only dream of the autocratic regime that Khomeini’s successor has created.
This explains why the leader of the Islamic Republic does not come to the aid of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, or the Houthis. Iran’s reactions in 2024 to assassinations in Tehran, including that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, were symbolic. He is trying to buy time to complete the nuclear program and build a nuclear weapons arsenal, while presenting Iran’s strength to domestic and regional audiences. North Korea is seen in Tehran as the ultimate proof that a country with nuclear weapons cannot be attacked.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s threat to potentially assassinate Khamenei could be another “game changer,” as it is uncertain whether a transition of power from father to son would go smoothly under such circumstances. A coup carried out by the Revolutionary Guards or the army cannot be ruled out.
Since the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, very few people know Khamenei’s exact whereabouts and movements. The task of protecting Ali Khamenei has been entrusted to a special division of the Revolutionary Guards’ special units.
There is no doubt that Khamenei would choose saving the Islamic regime over saving Iran. For Ali Khamenei and his entourage—at least what remains of it—Iran does not exist if they are not in power, which is why ensuring continuity is the top priority.
There is a major upheaval occurring not only among opposition-minded Iranians but also within the regime itself. Ali Khamenei’s intention to position his son Mojtaba as his successor is a source of discord, as it would effectively call into question a core pillar of the Islamic Revolution: Khomeini fought against monarchies, while his successor Ali Khamenei wants to appoint his own son as the new ayatollah.
In other words, after the communist dynasty in North Korea that has reached the third generation—from Kim Il Sung through Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un—we could see a theocratic Khamenei dynasty in the Islamic Republic, provided they survive a war with Israel.
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