The bromance of our time with (un)happy ending
Smiling Donald Trump, who even applauded while heading towards Vladimir Putin, was so embarrassing for the president of the most powerful country in the world that the White House protocol removed that gesture from all official video and photo records of the summit in Anchorage, Alaska.
The American president was so “hypnotized” by Putin that he forgot the phrases “ceasefire” and “truce,” which he had repeated like a parrot in the previous days, seasoning them with threats if the Russian leader did not immediately agree to stop hostilities with Ukraine.
Everything reminded of the meetings between George W. Bush and Putin, when the former American president gazed into Vladimir’s eyes and saw his soul!
The president of the most significant country in the democratic and free world addressed the man accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court as “Vladimir,” and Putin, in English, invited Donald to come to Moscow. The Russian president speaks English but uses interpreters for tactical reasons so he has extra time to think and respond to interlocutors.
Trump has long been fascinated by Russia and Putin. At a dinner with the longest-serving Russian ambassador to Washington, Dobrynin, over forty years ago, Trump was interested in whether it was possible for him to build a skyscraper with his “Trump Tower” brand. He also desperately tried to find ways to bring Putin to the Miss Universe finals – a beauty competition he co-owned – in Moscow 12 years ago, right after Putin returned to the presidency.
Trump couldn’t refuse Vladimir’s request to call Alexander Lukashenko, whom the American Bar Union had sued for implementing torture, repression, and the disappearance of two thousand people.
No American president, from Clinton to Biden, has wanted to meet or talk to Lukashenko (the photograph with Obama at a reception during the General Assembly can’t be counted, as it’s just a “photo opportunity” that American presidents arrange annually with their spouses).
Trump defined the Belarusian dictator as someone worthy of respect, and they had a wonderful conversation, with both promising to meet in Washington or Minsk, with Lukashenko, as a sign of goodwill, releasing 1,300 dissidents from prison.
PUTIN WINS, BUT DOESN’T WIN THE WAR
Putin achieved a series of positive results: he was rehabilitated on the global stage, bought time to continue military actions until late summer – in autumn, even without a truce, military operations would be suspended or drastically reduced due to adverse weather conditions – delayed new sanctions on Russia, but also secondary sanctions on China.
Additionally, the Russian president succeeded in convincing Trump to abandon the intermediate step towards a final resolution, that is, a ceasefire or truce – on which the American president had insisted until last Friday – and directly move towards a comprehensive agreement.
In this way, Russia could continue military operations and improve its position on the ground without consequences.
The Russian leader maliciously slipped in a warning with the tone of a threat that “Europeans and Ukrainians should not sabotage the process led by Americans and Russians.” With this message, Putin wanted to place the blame for any potential failure of negotiations on the EU members and Ukraine. This is not an insignificant detail, especially if you consider that the White House will be looking for a scapegoat for the failure of negotiations, with the intention of applying punitive measures against them.
The speed of organizing the summit in Alaska and the fact that there was no deep Russia expert in Trump’s inner circle left little room for optimism on the European and Ukrainian side. It seems that the pompous ceremony of welcoming Putin and the open display of affection between the two leaders and delegations was far more important than the actual talks.
Foreign policy did not avoid the trap of modern times; on the contrary, it tries to exploit its benefits and turn it into its weapon: presentation and image are far more important than substance and reality.
THE “RETURN” OF THE USSR TO ALASKA
Sergey Lavrov’s appearance in a sweatshirt with the acronym “CCCP” of the late Soviet Union before the summit in Alaska was a thoughtful and effective message, considering we live in a world where image and illusion are more important than reality and substance.
The gaps in Trump’s knowledge of Russia were evident, particularly when he couldn’t recall Lavrov’s name, despite the fact that Lavrov has been Russia’s foreign minister since 2004. However, Trump did notice the viral sweatshirt Lavrov wore on social media.
The Russians wanted neutral ground for the summit, but since there were no suitable destinations that both sides could agree on, the choice of Alaska was logical, especially if the goal was to show the two sides’ readiness to lay the foundation for new relations.
The choice of a military base near Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage – built during the 1940s as the first line of defense in the Cold War – was seen as a provocation in Moscow, but they swallowed it for the sake of higher goals.
Sergey Lavrov, the head of Russia’s diplomacy, who could surpass Gromyko on the list of the longest-serving foreign ministers and take second place behind the unapproachable Karl Robert Nesselrode (who served nearly 40 years under Tsars Alexander I and Nicholas I), did not miss the opportunity to send a double-edged message with the “CCCP” sweatshirt, especially since Putin considers the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastrophe. Part of the intelligence community and analysts in the EU and the US believe the Kremlin’s goal is to bring all former Soviet republics back into Moscow’s exclusive sphere of interest.
ATTENTION TO TRUMP’S MOOD SWINGS
Trump’s obsession with social media and the media could backfire on Russia. Like any populist, Trump listens to what his voter base feels and says. If his closeness to Putin does not find approval or seems like it could jeopardize his victory in next year’s midterm elections, there is no doubt that the New York tycoon will make another 180-degree turn.
Trump has already radically changed his views on Moscow, Kyiv, Putin, and Zelensky several times in the past seven months. His statements are in constant internal conflict. One week he criticizes Zelensky, praises Putin, the next week he swaps their roles, the third threatens sanctions on Russia, the fourth suspends weapon deliveries to Ukraine, the fifth pulls out secondary sanctions on Moscow’s key allies, including Beijing, the sixth threatens to leave the Ukrainians with a hot potato to handle.
The strongest card Trump could use against Russia is the so-called secondary sanctions, modeled on those applied to Iran, and lowering oil prices, since Russia’s budget is filled with 30% from oil sales.
However, both of Trump’s aces, if not used properly, timely, and consistently, could backfire on the US with all negative consequences. Imposing secondary sanctions could lead to closer ties between India and China, which would be almost the same mistake as allowing Beijing and Moscow to become strategic allies in Washington.
The US president has repeatedly stated that lowering oil prices by another ten dollars per barrel would collapse the Russian budget. That is true, but there’s another side to the coin: further lowering oil prices could jeopardize the American oil industry, as its exploitation costs due to fracking are higher than traditional methods.
It’s also important to note that a drop in oil prices is not possible without coordination with Saudi Arabia. In the midst of very expensive reforms and large projects in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would not welcome a further plunge in the value of black gold.
PUTIN’S TRAP FOR TRUMP
Russia has never truly been isolated on a global level. You can’t talk about isolation when you have two of the world’s most populous countries on your side, one of which is a true global power. However, it is true that Putin has faced ostracism from the West.
For that reason, it was important for the Russian leader to have a bilateral meeting with Trump, and the other glove came with the decision of the US president to turn that Russian leader’s desire into a triumph: by rolling out the red carpet, welcoming him with the highest honors, including a flyover by the B-2, and a ride in the special presidential car called “The Beast.”
Putin didn’t leave Trump hanging when it came to diplomatic propaganda courtesies. Putin’s confirmation of Trump’s repeatedly stated theory that there would be no war in Ukraine if he had been in the Oval Office in the previous term represented the peak of flattery and, figuratively speaking, setting up a ball for Trump to slam home.
By accusing Biden and placing the responsibility for the war in Ukraine on his shoulders, Putin wanted to send Trump the message that he, no matter what happens, is on his side. Donald stepped straight into that virtual trap Putin set for him.
By approving Putin’s words and addressing him by the name “Vladimir,” Trump didn’t even realize that he was, practically, accusing the country he represents and his predecessor in the White House, Joe Biden, for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – exactly what Russian propagandists have been repeating tirelessly for three and a half years.
To be fair, there are factions within the MAGA movement that view Biden as the main culprit for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This might have made some sense, albeit in a warped way, during the campaign for the White House as an attempt to discredit Biden or the Democratic Party. But continuing to spread this fabricated myth risks undermining both the US and Ukraine’s positions in negotiations with Russia.
RUSSIA STILL FOLLOWS GROMYKO’S DOCTRINE
In Alaska, we had a demonstration exercise that shows the doctrine of negotiations with the USA and the West, developed by the former head of the Soviet Union’s diplomacy, Andrei Gromyko, is still in effect. The keys to the style “Mister Nyet,” as his rivals referred to him, were: methodicalness, total preparedness, cold-bloodedness, maximalist demands, inflexibility, the threat of war, wearing down the opponent, and exploiting every weakness, including fatigue.
Henry Kissinger, one of the few American high-ranking officials who could handle the Soviet/Russian side, constantly warned his colleagues and contemporaries about the necessity of being absolutely well-prepared for any meeting with the Russian side, especially with Gromyko. Coming to a meeting with Gromyko unprepared and without a thorough knowledge of the dossier being discussed was like shooting yourself in the foot before a duel, Kissinger said.
Putin has not backed down on any point he has insisted on since the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine, or, more accurately, since the Orange Revolution two decades ago when the majority of Ukrainians’ desire to turn towards the EU and the West came to the surface.
“Where the foot of a Russian soldier stands, that is ours,” Putin recently said, citing an old Russian saying. It is intriguing that such sayings didn’t exist in imperial Russia, or there were no similar ones, while Putin’s maxim closely resembles the Nazi slogan: “Where the German soldier stands, no one else can pass.”
Dan Coats, former Director of National Intelligence, appointed by Trump, in an interview with Bob Woodward, the journalist who, together with Carl Bernstein, broke the famous Watergate scandal, said that there is no official record in the State Department about the five previous conversations Trump had with Putin in his capacity as President.
It’s worth noting that diplomats in the State Department typically make an official record of every meeting between the President and foreign leaders, but it would not be surprising if the sixth one from Alaska ends up where the previous five did.
THE SURFACE LEVEL OF TRUMP’S ENVIRONMENT IS WORRISOME
The superficiality and inexperience that oozed from all sides of the American team were also evident in the selection of the two individuals who accompanied Trump to his meeting with Putin. On one side, two seasoned diplomatic veterans, such as Sergey Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov; on the other side, Marco Rubio and Steve Vitkof.
On the Russian side – over a hundred years of diplomatic experience and decades of work in New York and Washington. On the American side – less than a year of experience in international relations and no knowledge of Russia.
It is very concerning that there are no experts on Russia in Trump’s circle; we are not talking about the caliber of George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, or Zbigniew Brzezinski. No, there is no one in Trump’s team even at the level of Condoleezza Rice. Instead, the ranks are full of dilettantes and people with many “skeletons” in their biographies, starting with the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.
It is a well-known fact that Trump does not read the reports that are delivered to him daily. Even for the most important dossiers, he only requests a few of the most important sentences.
This gap in his knowledge should be filled by an exceptionally well-prepared advisor, but that is certainly not Vitkof, who has spent his whole life dealing in real estate. Figuratively speaking, Trump is negotiating about Ukraine, and apart from Kyiv, he probably can’t name a single other city, let alone the key places and regions.
The superiority and thoroughness of the Russian approach to politics was also visible in the preparation and organization of the trip. Donald Trump traveled by plane for seven hours to Alaska. Despite “Air Force One” being a flying fortress with every possible comfort, it is still a strain for an 80-year-old like Trump.
The fatigue of the American president was evident not only during the statements after the summit but also during the interview with his friend Sean Hannity from Fox News.
On the other hand, Putin divided his trip into two stages, with a break in eastern Siberia, which was also used for political and propaganda purposes. He laid flowers at the monument dedicated to Soviet-American cooperation during World War II in Magadan, a town overlooking the Nagaev Bay, located a four-hour flight from Anchorage.
It is not accidental that Putin, with a much better memory and in better shape, read a pre-prepared text in front of journalists, chanting Russian positions word by word. Trump spoke “off the cuff,” improvising, repeating himself, and leaving an impression of slight confusion.
THE AMERICAN BELOW-THE-BELT STRIKE AGAINST RUSSIA IN THE CAUCASUS
A very specific weight in the relationship between Washington and Moscow is the Caucasus and the entry of the United States into that region. Traditionally, the Americans have never been very interested in the Caucasus.
However, the ambitions of Turkey and, above all, China, which wants to make one of the key routes of the New Silk Road through that region, have triggered a warning light in Washington.
The Americans have taken advantage of Russia’s “distraction” with the Ukrainian issue, as well as Armenia’s distancing from Moscow, to take up the position of protector of the oldest Christian state – a role that Russia played until a few months ago.
The signing of the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan under the auspices of the United States sends two very important messages. One is directed at Russia: we are here, even at your southern borders. The second, even more important one, was sent to Beijing: all the New Silk Roads are under our control, including the one that passes through the Caucasus.
The wound on Russia in the Caucasus was further salted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The dictator from Baku, after returning from a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Washington, donated two million euros as aid to Ukraine.
It’s a modest amount, given the financial situation in the Caucasian republic, but there is no doubt that the money went to Kyiv, and the message was very direct and provocative toward Moscow.
THE KOREAN RECIPE REMAINS THE MOST CREDIBLE
The “Korean recipe” for freezing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains the only somewhat credible and feasible option.
Just like in the case of the two Koreas, which were divided at the 38th parallel before signing a ceasefire that was never turned into a definitive peace agreement, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is possible only without providing any guarantees, hoping that a new generation of politicians in Moscow and Kyiv will be able to find a long-term, mutually accepted solution.
In the EU, apart from Hungary and Slovakia, no one trusts the Kremlin anymore, and there are no guarantees that Putin’s regime could offer to convince them to change their stance. Only Ukrainians still have trust.
At the same time, demands for the demilitarization of Ukraine and placing any form of veto on Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO are absolutely unacceptable to both Kyiv and Brussels.
As for the federalization of Ukraine and the recognition of the right of Ukrainian citizens to use the Russian language, these are issues around which a compromise can be reached.
Russia also demands that the Ukrainian army withdraw from a quarter of the Donetsk region, which it currently controls, and offers in return parts of the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy regions, while the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson would be transformed into a new state border.
For Moscow, the division of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is not a problem because the Russian Federation’s Constitution does not precisely define the borders of the four Ukrainian regions annexed.
In general, there is no major issue with the de facto division of Ukraine; both in Brussels and Kyiv, it is understood that it is impossible to recover the lost territories, and they could agree to a “freezing” of the conflict.
The obstacle is that the Ukrainians do not want to relinquish, for strategic and economic reasons, part of the Donetsk region that they control. Besides being rich in natural resources, if they gave it up, Russia would practically have an open path to central Ukraine. On the other hand, the conquest of the entire Donbas is symbolically necessary for Russia to declare victory.
Ukraine, as well as the EU and its most important member states, cannot agree to the legalization of the seizure of part of Ukrainian territory. Recognizing the de facto situation on the ground is one thing, but recognizing a change in borders through the use of military force is quite another.
Paradoxically, Ukraine and the EU find themselves in a very similar position as Serbia regarding Kosovo: they must acknowledge the factual situation, but they cannot recognize it de iure.
What has been said previously is the most dangerous trap for the bromance between Trump and Putin and the realization of their dreams: Donald wants to win a Nobel Prize, and Putin wants to restore the “USSR.”
However, Putin has no intention of helping Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize, and Donald will not allow Vladimir to establish dominance over the former USSR space, and sooner or later, a direct confrontation will be inevitable—unless Trump’s term ends first.
AND THE EU IS ALREADY PAYING THE PRICE FOR UKRAINE
The EU and its most significant member states have already taken on almost the entire burden of paying the bill for arming Ukraine. Of course, the weapons intended for the former Soviet republic are still, to a large extent, “Made in the USA”—between 80 and 90 percent—but the EU and its members are covering 90 percent of the weapons, military materials, and ammunition being delivered to Ukraine.
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