With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, there will undoubtedly be significant changes in Europe’s security structure, and the most direct example of this is the potential (and very likely) accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. However, Europe has been in a sort of pre-militarized state for years. Ever since the U.S. introduced the idea of a NATO missile shield in Eastern Europe, tensions have been rising—this dates back around 20 years. As early as 2002, the Bush administration proposed deploying missile systems in Eastern Europe, an idea Russia has staunchly opposed ever since. The issue resurfaced in 2009 when then-President Obama proposed deploying the Aegis ballistic missile system to replace the GMD (Ground-Based Midcourse) systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.
At the same time, there was some flirtation with the idea of greater European independence, talk of forming a European army, and reducing American influence. But that now seems almost certainly off the table. American military influence in Europe will only grow, as will the influence of NATO (which is essentially managed by the U.S.). The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO would significantly alter the situation in Northern Europe. Moscow has already stated that in such a case, it would have to “balance” the situation—likely implying the deployment of powerful weaponry (nuclear?) to its Kaliningrad exclave, situated between Poland and Lithuania.
The Baltic Sea region will also become far more tense, and that brings us to today’s focus: a very important location, the island of Gotland—described by former U.S. commander in Europe, Ben Hodges, as “the most strategically important island anywhere.”
Gotland (likely named after the “Goths”—thus, “Gothic Island”) is Sweden’s second-largest island. About 60,000 people live there, with around 24,000 in the largest town, Visby. Geographically, the island is quite elongated—about 52 kilometers wide and 176 kilometers long.
Gotland is located approximately 90 kilometers from mainland Sweden and about 130 kilometers from the Baltic coast—its closest point being Latvia. It’s also about 340 kilometers from Russia’s Kaliningrad.
Gotland is the main island, but several smaller islets around it are generally considered part of the same administrative region.
Archaeological findings show that the island has been inhabited since around 7200 BCE. Positioned in the center of the Baltic Sea, Gotland has always had immense strategic significance.
Since 1645, the island has been under Swedish control. A curious historical episode took place in 1806, when Swedish authorities offered sovereignty over Gotland to the Knights Hospitaller (Order of St. John), who had been expelled from Malta in 1798. The Knights rejected the offer, as accepting it would have meant fully relinquishing their claim to Malta. In hindsight, it might have been better for them to accept, since they never regained Malta and were only later reestablished in Rome as the Sovereign Military Order of Malta.
Had the Knights taken over Gotland, perhaps it would have been spared the imminent conflict. In 1808, war broke out between the Kingdom of Sweden and the Russian Empire (the so-called Finnish War). Around 1,800 Russian soldiers, led by Commander Nikolai Andreevich Bodisko, landed on Gotland on April 22, 1808, and occupied the capital, Visby, without resistance. But the occupation lasted less than a month—Swedish forces under Admiral Rudolf Cederström launched a counterattack and expelled the Russians by May 18, 1808.
Today, Gotland is a picturesque island with a thriving tourism industry, offering much for visitors to see. Yet, the island can’t escape its exceptional military-strategic importance.
In 2015, Swedish authorities decided to reestablish a permanent military presence on Gotland. It began with around 150 soldiers, but soon plans were announced for constructing an airstrip to host helicopters and Gripen fighter jets.
Since 2018, the militarization of Gotland has intensified, coinciding with a significant increase in Sweden’s defense budget. That year, a new Gotland Regiment was established—the first new regiment in Sweden since World War II.
Tensions between Sweden and Russia have been rising for years, arguably more so than between Finland and Russia, although if they join NATO, both countries will likely enter simultaneously.
In 2016, Russian Ambassador to Sweden, Viktor Tatarintsev, was asked by local media whether a conflict between Russia and Sweden was possible in the near future. He completely dismissed the idea, saying Sweden had nothing to fear and even referenced Gotland, asserting that Russia had no ambitions toward the strategically important island.
But much has changed in the six years since that interview—especially since February 24 of this year. Sweden’s desire to join NATO is clearly directly related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the perception that remaining outside the alliance has become too dangerous.
Incidentally, Tatarintsev is still the ambassador in Stockholm. When recently asked by the media about the sanctions imposed on Russia, he bluntly responded: “Excuse my language, but I don’t give a f*** about their sanctions.”
If Sweden joins NATO, Gotland will come with it—something that may spell bad news for the island’s tourism sector, as it could easily be transformed into a large military base.
Regardless of when Sweden officially joins NATO, the militarization of Gotland is already underway. Large-scale military exercises are planned for this September involving around 20,000 Swedish soldiers, with participation from the U.S., France, Norway, Denmark, and Estonia. Meanwhile, Russia has announced its own large-scale drills involving 100,000 soldiers in Belarus and Kaliningrad.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated that Russia would take certain “military measures” if Sweden becomes a NATO member—likely referring to the further militarization of Kaliningrad. In such a scenario, a similar level of militarization can be expected on Gotland, especially if NATO oversees operations.
Interestingly, Gotland’s role has changed in this century. The island was a major military stronghold during the Cold War but was completely demilitarized in 2005. Those were arguably better times, with the focus shifted to tourism (the old part of Visby is under UNESCO protection).
Now, Sweden is launching a national readiness campaign—for both the military and civilians—and has begun a national plan to rapidly restore nuclear shelters. During the Cold War, Sweden built over 65,000 nuclear shelters across the country, making it the nation with the highest number of such shelters per capita.
It’s not just Gotland’s everyday life that’s changing, but the whole of Sweden. The country abolished military conscription in 2010, but has already decided to reinstate it starting next year.
It’s hard to say how these tensions will develop—whether they’ll escalate or eventually ease—but Gotland will remain, as ever, the sentinel in the middle of the Baltic Sea, as strategically important as it has always been.
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