Trump’s Envoy in the Kremlin, Russia’s “No,” India’s Defiance on Tariffs, and Cracks in U.S. Global Dominance
The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff, envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump, held today in the Kremlin, lasted nearly three hours and marked the climax of an intense but so far fruitless diplomatic effort aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. For Moscow, the meeting fits into a broader strategy of establishing direct channels to the White House, bypassing the traditional mechanisms of Washington’s state apparatus. For Trump, this represents a last-ditch effort—just days before the critical August 8 deadline—to demonstrate that his administration is “doing everything” to bring the war to an end through pressure.
Witkoff conveyed to the Russian president a set of demands focused on an immediate and unconditional cessation of hostilities. According to advisor Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin offered “signals” that it might agree to a partial moratorium on airstrikes, but not a broader ceasefire. From Moscow’s perspective, a gradual approach makes sense—Russia does not want to give up military leverage while Kyiv continues to strengthen its missile capabilities with ongoing U.S. financial and logistical support. The Kremlin argues that the war persists primarily because of the American decision to sustain Ukrainian resistance with weapons and intelligence—giving Russia, ultimately, the rationale to reject an ultimatum from the very party keeping the conflict alive.
Trump’s threat of additional sanctions is not limited to Russia. The U.S. also announced the introduction of steep “secondary” tariffs against countries that continue buying Russian oil or expand trade with key sectors of the Russian economy. This expansion of the sanctions mechanism illustrates Washington’s ambition to use economic leverage to discipline a broader circle of states—many of which are already seeking alternative geopolitical alignments. Therefore, the Kremlin emphasized in its talks with Witkoff that further escalation of sanctions would prompt exactly what the U.S. fears most—greater coordination among major powers outside the Western bloc.
India stands out in particular—it’s the world’s third-largest oil consumer and one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude, taking advantage of prices exempt from Western premiums. Trump’s tariff double hike—from 25% to a total of 50%—was labeled “unjustified and unreasonable” by New Delhi. The Indian government made it clear that it will “take all necessary measures” to protect its energy and development interests. In practice, this means India will maintain access to Russian oil, which it refines and resells profitably on European markets. If India withstands the pressure—and indications suggest it will—it would collapse the “credibility” of the U.S. sanctions model: Washington could no longer rely on market costs to force partner states to follow its political line.
India’s defiance carries deeper implications. Profitable flows of Russian oil to South Asian refineries not only provide New Delhi with a financial cushion but also strengthen its economic ties with Moscow. Alongside existing military cooperation, this growing closeness sends a message to other Global South countries that it is possible to “break through” the sanctions wall. In this context, the idea of a multipolar order—long rhetorically supported by Russia and China—is becoming less theoretical and more a reality, accelerated every time Washington reaches for economic coercion.
If Trump’s ultimatum fails, it will serve as a kind of stress test for the lasting power of U.S. global dominance. America’s military superiority remains uncontested, but the economic and financial instruments that have long been the core of U.S. leadership are facing a credibility crisis. Secondary sanctions, which seemed like a powerful weapon in 2022, no longer carry the same weight in 2025: global energy trade is fragmenting into parallel payment systems, and several countries—including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil, and South Africa—are actively developing mechanisms to shield themselves from dollar-based and SWIFT restrictions.
Putin’s readiness to reject the ultimatum, at least in its current form, partly rests on the assessment that America’s coercive power has fallen below the threshold needed to alter Moscow’s strategic calculations. After the initial shock of sanctions, the Russian economy has been reoriented around Asian energy markets, diversified imports from China and Turkey, and accelerated de-dollarization. While domestic production of critical equipment has not yet returned to pre-war efficiency, the Kremlin believes time is on its side: each additional year of war becomes more expensive for the West, while Moscow maintains political cohesion and a current account surplus.
This is why the Kremlin believes that, even if Trump activates a full round of sanctions on Friday, most of the world will continue to trade with Russia. Revenue from energy markets in developing countries, combined with a relatively stable ruble exchange rate, is sufficient to fund a military campaign that Moscow sees as ultimately more exhausting for Ukraine and its Western backers. More broadly, rejecting the ultimatum would serve as evidence that American economic dictatorship can be outlasted—thus further legitimizing the concept of multipolarity that Russia promotes in forums such as BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
From a military perspective, the rumored moratorium on airstrikes would only amount to a tactical pause. Kyiv insists on a complete withdrawal of Russian forces and restoration of borders to their pre-2022 status—a demand Moscow sees as unrealistic. Still, even a partial lull would demonstrate that the Kremlin can dictate the pace of negotiations, rather than simply react to U.S. deadlines. This would, in effect, weaken the role of the U.S. as the supreme arbiter of European security.
If nothing dramatic happens by August 8—and current signs suggest an agreement is not in sight—Washington will likely proceed with a new round of sanctions. Russia will ignore them, India will challenge them, parts of Europe will reluctantly comply, and China will watch as new space opens for its own economic and financial expansion. This outcome wouldn’t spell the immediate collapse of American power, but it would highlight its gradual erosion.
Finally, let’s look at the latest information from today’s meeting in Moscow.
According to statements from the U.S. president, the meeting produced “very productive” results and marked “significant progress” toward ending the war in Ukraine. In a brief message, Trump confirmed that the U.S. and Russia will continue working on resolving the conflict “in the coming days and weeks,” without offering details on the agreements reached.
The Kremlin also gave a positive assessment of the talks, calling them “useful and constructive.” Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov stated that certain “signals” were exchanged regarding Ukraine—Moscow presented its positions and demands, and President Trump responded with corresponding messages. However, both sides refrained from disclosing any specific details until Witkoff briefs Trump.
According to unofficial information, as previously mentioned, Russia has considered the possibility of a mutual moratorium on airstrikes. However, this would fall far short of the full ceasefire sought by Kyiv and Washington.
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