Has Trump’s “America First” policy inadvertently created a global environment favorable to Chinese interests, or will the new multipolar world also present a range of risks for Beijing?
Over the past decade, the increasingly intense conflict between the United States (U.S.) and China has been reshaping the architecture of international relations. With Donald Trump’s rise to the U.S. presidency, the “America First” policy abruptly altered the postwar geostrategic and economic principles of the global leader. America’s withdrawal from international agreements, trade wars, and emphasis on bilateralism created waves of uncertainty across continents. On the other side of the Pacific, China’s political elite seems to observe these developments with less apprehension than the West might expect.
Chinese strategists and international relations experts see Trump’s isolationism not only as a weakening of U.S. hegemony but also as the beginning of a transition from a unipolar to a truly multipolar world. While American foreign policy loses its grounding in traditional alliances and multilateralism, China is carefully building a network of partnerships, investing political and financial capital in projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, new economic blocs, and promoting sovereignty without conditionality. The fundamental question, then, is whether Trump’s “America First” policy has unintentionally created a global environment suited to Chinese interests—or whether the emerging multipolarity will also expose Beijing to new risks.
“America First” and Shifts in Global Relations
“America First” was not merely a slogan; it was a radical shift. The U.S. no longer plays the role of the undisputed axis of the Western order, but prioritizes its own economic and political interests over broader international coordination. Instead of building or maintaining multilateral institutions, Washington favors bilateral arrangements, raises tariffs, initiates trade wars, and increases uncertainty with both partners and adversaries.
For many Western allies, this approach was a shock. NATO’s stability was undermined, shared values were relativized, and international institutions were pushed into survival mode. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and aggressive trade disputes with China—and even with former EU allies—fractured global trust networks.
Unsurprisingly, China recognized that America’s traditional levers of influence were weakened. U.S. coordination with key European partners diminished, while many developing countries viewed the Trump administration cautiously, opening space for Beijing. Instead of a liberal international order, competition intensified, and China successfully promoted its own development strategies and pragmatic alliances free from ideological constraints. Trump’s policy unintentionally fractured many pillars of the Pax Americana—a period of relative global stability under U.S. dominance modeled after the Pax Romana and Pax Britannica—while simultaneously enhancing China’s opportunities on the world stage, though also increasing the risk of global fragmentation and instability.
Chinese Strategic Doctrine and Vision of the World
For years, Chinese foreign policy has focused on gradually expanding global influence through strategies like the Belt and Road Initiative and building new economic and political alliances outside the Western framework. China’s approach is pragmatic: rather than confronting the West directly, it emphasizes diplomatic growth, economic connectivity, and offering China’s development model to partners across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
At the core of China’s strategic doctrine is the vision of a multipolar world, where multiple regional powers coexist, cooperate, and compete based on sovereignty, economic benefits, and technology exchange—not ideological or military dominance.
China has long promoted sovereignty, non-interference, and shared interests over political tutelage. Strategists and academics predict that dollarization, U.S.-dominated global institutions, and unified military-political blocs cannot endure indefinitely. According to them, the world is inevitably moving toward multiple centers of power.
Trump’s “America First” agenda accelerated this process. Chinese policymakers, economists, and military analysts increasingly argue that weakened U.S. coordination with allies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements created an international environment Beijing had been preparing for over a decade. Space opened for Chinese initiatives, autonomy, and alternative networks of cooperation independent of the West and guided by mutual benefit.
Trump’s Policy as a Signal of Weakness
Among Chinese scholars and retired military leaders, there is consensus: Trump’s turn toward “America First” is not a sign of strength but of weakness and exhaustion in global leadership. Leading Chinese universities and think tanks evaluate that America has voluntarily forfeited a key tool: its capacity to form and mobilize coalitions, set global standards, and enforce rules.
For Chinese strategists, this loosening allows more efficient expansion of Chinese influence among developing countries and within a less unified Europe. The weakening of U.S. hegemony is seen as a historical opportunity for China to promote sovereignty, economic development, and its model of technological transformation and state capitalism. The argument is simple: while America is preoccupied with internal issues and trade wars, Beijing can offer stability and investment to build long-term partnerships from Asia to Africa.
Chinese analysts remain cautious. They recognize risks such as sudden U.S. reversals, uncertainty in multilateral flows, and the threat of technological isolation. Yet many Chinese officials view the Trump era as an opportunity for the expansion of Chinese influence and as confirmation of the gradual transition from U.S. dominance to a multipolar world order.
Multipolarity in Practice
Trump’s withdrawal from global agreements and alliances left a vacuum in international relations that China has sought to fill with concrete action. This is especially visible in China’s growing engagement with developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, where Chinese investments, development loans, and infrastructure projects have accelerated.
Without strong American pressure or strict Western coordination, many countries see China’s offer as a more favorable alternative: investments without political conditions, rapid technology transfer, and respect for state sovereignty. Trump’s trade barriers and rhetoric often motivated countries to diversify partners and strengthen economic ties with Beijing.
Similar dynamics are observed in China’s relations with Russia, Central Asia, and parts of the Middle East, where U.S. influence is declining or losing credibility. The benefits for China are not just economic and political, but also strategic—for example, exporting technology and setting new global standards (e.g., 5G, digital infrastructure).
Multipolarity, accelerated by America’s retreat as the “global policeman,” allows China to act as a pragmatic mediator, investor, and guarantor of stability—but also increases complexity and uncertainty in the international environment. The long-term challenge is clear: greater fragmentation means more risks but also more opportunities for those who can adapt quickly.
China Is Not Euphoric
Although many Chinese academics and strategists openly welcome the decline of U.S. global authority, caution prevails. Multipolarity and system fragmentation create more space for Chinese diplomacy and capital but also greater unpredictability, competition, and risk of regional or trade conflicts.
Trade wars from the Trump era are ongoing, and the technological competition aims to limit China’s access to cutting-edge technology and strategic markets. Moreover, the absence of clear global rules increases the chances of misunderstandings and escalation, while China must assume responsibilities and risks that Washington previously bore.
The Chinese political elite knows it is not yet able—economically, institutionally, or militarily—to take the global throne. Rising influence comes with rising expectations from other countries, and mistakes could lead to rival coalitions or new hotspots of instability. Therefore, Beijing continues a measured, gradual approach, viewing multipolarity as a long-term process, not a quick, decisive victory.
Multipolarity and Long-Term Chinese Strategy
Trump’s “America First” policy marked a historic moment of accelerated unipolar decline. Chinese scholars, strategists, and policymakers see this as validation of long-term forecasts and opportunities: expanded autonomy in diplomacy, strengthened economic influence, and the ability to promote its development model independently of the West.
However, enthusiasm is tempered by caution. International fragmentation increases the risk of conflicts and misunderstandings. While multipolarity opens more channels for cooperation, it also imposes greater responsibilities, requiring sophisticated diplomacy and readiness for unpredictable changes.
China is in no rush to become the global leader. It prefers to be a strong but measured center of power in a competitive arena of emerging nations. Chinese strategic thinking shows that, although the weakening of U.S. hegemony opens opportunities, the new era offers no simple victories—it demands constant adjustment and careful balancing of benefits and risks.
Instead of euphoria, Beijing adopts a strategy of pragmatic optimism in an increasingly diverse, complex, and unpredictable world.
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