Putin and Modi are deciding the fate of an energy axis that defies Washington, while India weighs its power between cheap Russian oil and American pressure
Vladimir Putin is tonight a guest of Narendra Modi in New Delhi. The two leaders are currently having a private dinner at the prime minister’s residence, 7 Lok Kalyan Marg, ahead of tomorrow’s official part of the 23rd annual India-Russia summit. This is Putin’s first visit to India since 2021—that is, the first since the start of the war in Ukraine and since Washington launched a new wave of tariffs and sanctions, both against Moscow and against New Delhi. Modi personally welcomed him on the tarmac at Palam airfield with a hug and a shared ride in the same car, clearly showing how important it is to him that this meeting succeeds.
Formally, a whole package of agreements will be on the table tomorrow: from defense and space cooperation to energy, trade, and finance. But behind everything stands one huge figure—the goal of raising bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. Trade has already exploded, from around $13 billion in 2021 to nearly $69 billion in the 2024/25 financial year, almost entirely thanks to India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil after Western sanctions were imposed. At the same time, the structure is highly unbalanced: India mainly imports Russian energy and fertilizers, while its exports to Russia remain relatively modest.
As we know, it is precisely oil and energy that receive special attention in Washington. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil accounted for only a few percent of India’s imports; after Europe sharply reduced its purchases and Russian oil prices fell with large discounts, the share jumped to about one-third of India’s total oil imports. From the very beginning, India has maintained that this is purely a matter of national interest—securing energy for 1.4 billion people at the lowest possible price. The United States sees it differently: they claim that India is thereby financing the war. This summer, the Trump administration first imposed an additional 25% tariff, then effectively raised the rate to 50% on a large part of Indian exports.
Trump went a step further. On several occasions he stated that India “will stop buying Russian oil,” even claiming that Modi had personally assured him of this, and he repeated that narrative both before and after meeting Putin in Alaska. The data, however, paint a different picture: India’s refinery imports of Russian oil have somewhat decreased under the pressure of secondary sanctions and banks’ fears, but they remain at very high levels and continue to serve as a key channel for Russian exports to the Mediterranean and Asia.
For Moscow, therefore, today’s summit is much more than protocol. Putin is coming to New Delhi to show that Russia is not isolated and that it has a huge market in Asia. He also wants to expand cooperation beyond oil and gas: a new $2 billion submarine contract is mentioned, additional squadrons of Su-30 fighters, the first concrete steps toward acquiring or jointly producing fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft, and the expansion of S-400-based air defense. In several recent conflicts, including the limited clash with Pakistan, India has already tested how vital Russian systems like the S-400 are for its security—but also how vulnerable it is if deliveries are delayed due to the war and sanctions.
Defense has historically and symbolically been the central pillar of relations between these two countries. Ever since the Soviet era—when the 1971 friendship treaty was signed and Moscow openly stood with New Delhi at the time of East Pakistan’s breakup—the Indian military has largely grown on Soviet and Russian equipment. Today, Russia remains the single largest supplier, accounting for about one-third of India’s arms imports, although that share is gradually declining as India buys more from France and the United States and develops its own industry. A new military cooperation agreement recently ratified by the State Duma facilitates joint exercises, troop deployments, and the possibility of deeper technology transfers, directly tying Delhi to its own “Make in India” defense program.
If defense is the foundation, space may be the most exotic layer of the Russian-Indian story. As early as 1984, the first Indian in space flew on a Soviet spacecraft. Russia is currently participating in India’s Gaganyaan project, and Roscosmos is offering cooperation on engines, fuel, and future orbital stations.
Such expansion of cooperation—from the military to high technology, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and pharmaceuticals—is a good reminder that India and Russia still seek to define themselves as a “special and privileged strategic partnership,” not just as a buyer and seller of oil.
The economic part of today’s agenda nevertheless revolves around three words: trade, payments, tariffs. Trump’s “punitive” tariffs on India, conditioned on purchases of Russian oil, have sharply worsened New Delhi-Washington relations and forced the Indian government to accelerate the search for new markets and partners. In that context, Russia offers not only energy and weapons but also space for Indian exports of cars, machinery, medicines, food, and IT services. That is what Modi is trying to use to soften the huge trade deficit with Moscow.
One of the key trends is bypassing the dollar. After Russian banks were cut off from parts of the Western financial system, India and Russia are gradually introducing greater use of local currencies (rupees and rubles) and building infrastructure—from Vostro accounts and rupee-ruble mechanisms to linking the RuPay and Mir card systems, as well as the faster payment systems UPI and Russia’s SBP. Just before Putin’s arrival, Russian banks Gazprombank and Alfa Bank applied for licenses to open branches in New Delhi and Mumbai, while the Russian central bank opened an office in Mumbai—a clear signal that a long-term financial corridor with India, independent of the West, is being prepared.
All of this is happening under pressure from Washington and Brussels. This year Trump personally and publicly called out India for “profiteering” on Russian oil, accompanied by a series of threats of additional tariffs and secondary sanctions. European ambassadors in New Delhi published joint articles criticizing Russian policy toward Ukraine and calling on India to “take a clearer side.” Delhi, however, stubbornly repeats the mantra of “strategic autonomy,” refuses to condemn Moscow at the UN, calls for dialogue, yet at the same time tries to keep negotiations on a trade agreement with the United States alive in order to lift at least some of the tariffs.
Moscow’s response to American pressure came directly from Putin today. In an interview with Indian television, he said: “Why shouldn’t India have the same privilege as the United States to buy Russian fuel?” He praised Modi as a leader who “does not succumb to pressure” and stressed that India is nobody’s colony. From the Russian side, the message is clear—Moscow counts on historical trust, cheap energy, and deep military dependence to outweigh tariff threats from Washington.
That a quiet struggle is being waged over India is visible at every step. The United States wants New Delhi for its Indo-Pacific strategies against China; Russia sees it as a key point in a multipolar world and a bridge to the “Global South.” For Modi, this visit is a test of his balancing skills. He must show that Trump’s pressure has not broken the link with Moscow, while at the same time not closing the door to a future easing of American tariffs. The reality, however, is that neither Washington can overnight replace Russian energy and weapons for India, nor can Moscow find an equally large and growing market as India’s!
Alongside the “heavy” topics, today also brought a series of symbolic images reminding us how emotionally this relationship is nurtured. In Varanasi, during the Ganga aarti, lamps were arranged to spell “Welcome Putin”; Delhi has been flooded with posters bearing the images of the two leaders; and various Indian and Russian commentators—from diplomats to chess grandmasters—speak of a “special friendship” and even call for stronger cooperation in chess, where young Indians now dominate. As the Putin-Modi dinner continues in Delhi, the message being sent to the West is fairly simple: despite the war, sanctions, and tariff wars, the Russian-Indian axis remains one of the key pillars of a new, more fragmented global balance.
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