Israel will come out as the loser — where frustration is already being felt — but real peace doesn’t exist and won’t come without solving the Palestinian question
If Donald Trump really is who he claims to be, then being Donald Trump is by no means easy. This morning, that idea gains more weight because what we’ve witnessed over the past 48 hours represents the pinnacle of the Trumpist approach: an intense geopolitical rollercoaster with sharp turns and the constant sense that the driver is about to crash into a wall, endangering everyone onboard. And yet, somehow, for now, he keeps avoiding disaster and is now cruising on a straightaway, boasting that it was all easy with the right grip on the wheel.
In reality, Trump perhaps has, as the saying goes, more luck than brains — and we’ve known that for a long time. He “knew” when to turn his head so a bullet wouldn’t go straight through it. Just like now, he somehow “knew” that a Sunday morning strike — a massive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities — would magically lead to de-escalation instead of total war in the Middle East.
Of course, he couldn’t have known, but lucky he is. By some miracle, the U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities didn’t cause massive radiation leaks (perhaps because the Iranians had already moved their nuclear material to a new secret location?). Similarly, Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar (and allegedly Iraq) caused no major damage or casualties. Even though the Iranians reportedly warned both the U.S. and Qatar ahead of time, who can guarantee that missile defense systems will intercept every projectile? Even a piece of debris could have landed in a densely populated part of Doha, causing disaster and escalation — not to mention if a missile had hit the Al Udeid base and killed dozens of U.S. troops. What then? Full-scale war? Tactical nukes?
But if you asked Trump, he’d probably say we’re overdramatizing — nothing happened, so “let’s move on.” And in a way, he’d be right — we move on because we still don’t know what’s coming next.
Trump seized on Iran’s lukewarm response as a chance for sudden de-escalation — which, by all accounts, was Iran’s goal too. A few more intense exchanges followed between Iran and Israel, but — at the time of writing — the Middle East seems relatively calm.
Trump triumphantly announced what he called a total ceasefire, effective immediately.
In his now-familiar style — like a playground bully-turned-peacemaker — he separated the brawlers, feeding both egos with talk of how strong and smart they are, but it’s time to take a break.
The first prediction? Trump is extremely naïve if he thinks this will just blow over. On the other hand, if we’re talking about peace, he should be given a chance — even though he helped start the fire. Israel launched an attack on Iran on June 13th, with full backing from Trump and the U.S.
If peace does take hold, Trump will endlessly use the episode to praise himself — claiming he masterfully orchestrated the whole thing — though it’ll always be said that he had more luck than sense.
What he has already managed is to calm his political base — some of whom were ready to revolt if he dragged the U.S. into another war. And this one-off strike on Iranian nuclear sites? That’ll be quickly forgiven.
Of course, everything could change in 30 minutes. Trump himself admitted that the attack was launched under false pretenses and that the “two weeks of diplomacy” was just a ruse to lull Iran into dropping its defenses. So who’s to say this isn’t another trap? A ceasefire, just so the aging Ayatollah steps into the open — and then he gets drone-struck like General Soleimani?
Trump has cried wolf too many times to be trusted. Only time can reveal his true intentions — his words are just smoke and mirrors.
For now, let’s assume this is real — and that the conflict is subsiding. The markets, those most sensitive barometers, seem to think so (oil prices dropped, stocks surged).
Who are the winners and losers in this story? As bizarre as it may sound, Iran may actually come out ahead. Long-term, they would struggle to withstand Israel’s absolute air dominance. While Israel sustained damage, its air force could eventually reduce Tehran to rubble — first like Beirut, then perhaps like Gaza. So yes, Iran has every reason to want this war to end — especially now that they have footage of destroyed buildings in Tel Aviv and Haifa to bolster their claim that only Iran can strike back at Israel, the only power reacting to Israel’s ongoing massacre of the Palestinian people.
But has Iran lost its nuclear program? That’s still unclear. Some experts say Trump’s strike may have set the program back only a few months. Others warn that it may have only accelerated Iran’s drive to obtain nuclear weapons. Until now, conflicts were fought through proxies (Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria…). But now, Iran has been attacked directly. That fact changes everything — maybe even invalidates the fatwa from Iran’s Supreme Leader banning nukes.
Early commentary in Israeli media shows rising frustration and criticism of Trump, even though yesterday he was hailed with giant “Thank You Trump” banners. Many in Israel are furious at the idea that the U.S. might now withdraw — and worse, pressure Israel to stop attacking Iran. Israel hoped this was the start of a major war, with regime change in Tehran as the goal. If Trump backs out now, praise will quickly turn to condemnation.
And if it turns out the nuclear sites weren’t as damaged as Trump claimed? Then Israel will have to admit the “objectives weren’t achieved.” Let’s not forget: another major goal of this aggression was to save Netanyahu. Facing a no-confidence vote, he launched the attack. Polls show he would’ve lost a snap election. Will this conflict boost his popularity? Maybe. But it depends on the outcome. If Trump pulled out before Netanyahu wanted him to, Netanyahu may end up the loser — and the scenes of dead Israelis and destroyed buildings will take on a new, bitter meaning.
As for the president with more luck than brains — his talk of peace in the Middle East holds no weight. He could help bring peace, but definitely not by encouraging Israeli aggression and joining in. The only path to peace is pressuring Israel to accept a two-state solution. Only when the Palestinian flag proudly flies — recognized globally (the vast majority of UN nations already support this!) — will peace truly start to take root.
Only when someone has the courage to condemn Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal policies and the extremist fundamentalism of “Greater Israel” can real peace begin.
The totalitarian Likud movement is physically killing Palestinian civilians to achieve its territorial ambitions. This must end — and only the U.S. has the power to make it happen, though it almost certainly won’t. The Israeli army continues to massacre children and starving civilians trying to reach aid. The West, with its tepid reporting, is complicit.
Israel does everything it can to ensure Palestine never appears on the map. Nearly all blood spilled in the Middle East since 1948 ties back to this. The U.S., which helps keep Palestine erased, bears a huge — maybe even greater — responsibility. Washington could easily pressure Israel and demand a two-state solution in exchange for continued cooperation. But the Zionist lobby consistently proves stronger than any U.S. political will.
In hindsight, Barack Obama showed real courage when he ignored that lobby’s outrage and secured the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Then Trump arrived and tore it up for no reason — simply as a favor to Israel, which couldn’t stand the idea of improved U.S.-Iran relations. Of course, neither Obama nor anyone else in the Oval Office had the guts to firmly demand, with a clear deadline, a free Palestine.
A sovereign Palestinian state — even if it were just 30% of the former British Mandate — would be the start of resolving countless conflicts in the region. And if anyone is genuinely concerned about “extremism” from Hamas or Iranian rhetoric — let them give justice and freedom a chance. Almost certainly, extremism will lose its fuel.
Palestine must exist and be free.
The mass killing in Gaza must end.
Netanyahu must be held accountable, in The Hague or in his own country, if it ever has the strength to turn a new page.
The world — including the Muslim world — is ready to accept two states.
Only then can reconstruction of peace truly begin.
If Trump really wanted peace, that’s where he’d start.
But until we see any sign of that, we have no reason for hope.
And under those conditions, there’s no reason to expect long silence over the skies of the Middle East.
About the Author
